But now the rock has rolled back down the hill again with a rumble that has shaken, quite literally. the Independent, there is nothing for it but to gather round and start pushing it back up again.. The whispering campaign has begun in earnest. It is all the fault of Lord Mackay of Clashfern, the Lord Chancellor.
If he had not recommended Lord Justice (now Sir Richard) Scott to head the arms-to-Iraq inquiry, we would not be in this mess. Not only that, a Tory MP in the Commons tea room said pointedly last Thursday: this is not the first time the Lord Chancellor has fouled up; he also chose Lord Nolan, you know. That remark says it all. Similarly President Clinton's offer of a new summit should not be immediately dismissed.But we must face the fact that none of this may matter a damn. If the IRA is determined on fighting, if there is nothing short of a process leading inexorably to a United Ireland which will pacify them, them the war will return. But that will not, cannot, lead to a military victory by which Ireland is united against the will of the majority in the North. This was never going to happen, despite the conspiracy theorists of Belfast and London Unionism. Gerry Adams himself is now in a very difficult and probably very dangerous position; if he has counter-proposals, they need to be heard seriously without too much huffing and puffing by Westminster politicians This is not a moment for Pavlovian instincts.
It seems highly likely that the political party did not know in advance about any resumption of violence They seemed caught on the hop last night There may be a split of a significant kind occurring. Sinn Fein ought not to be pushed back into the marginal position of being "IRA-Sinn Fein" while that goes on. David Trimble and his colleagues are immune from pressure exerted by Downing Street That is, perhaps, part of the problem. But it is a fact of life too little recognised in the Republic.So what now can be done? There will surely be a very fast London-Dublin summit with a desperate appeal for second thoughts, while local politicians and spooks attempt desperately to find out whether this is what it seems to be.
